Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
